Objective: To measure rates and identify predictors of mortality in the elderly cohort of Asan City, Korea.
Design: A wave 2 prospective epidemiological study after 3.5 years.
Materials and Methods: In an aging, population-based cohort of 1,246 elderly aged 65 years or older at the beginning of follow-up, we conducted a prospective study with 3.5 years of follow-up. Predictor variables examined in Cox proportional hazards models were vascular risk factors (stroke, hypertention, diabetes mellitus and heart diseases), organicity and depression cases diagnosed by GMS-AGECAT, smoking (unit: pack/year), ability to perform activities of daily living (ADLs) and consistent use of vitamin E, controlling for age, sex and education. Main outcome was mortality after 3.5 years.
Results: Mortality rates were similar to those of the 1997 Korean population. Older age (RR=1.09), male sex (RR=2.45), ADL disability (RR=1.70) and presence of vascular risk factors (RR=1.48) measured at baseline were significant predictors of mortality in this wave 2 study.
Conclusion: Age, sex, ADL disability and presence of vascular risk factors are strong and consistent independent predictors of mortality in the elderly in the community. It may be a strong evidence of the high incidence and mortality of stroke in Korea. More intensive intervention to prevent vascular risk factors will prove it as improved longevity of the Korean people.
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